The Village Funds’s Substack

STIR Outlook, US Dollar Strength and Rising Equity Risks

In this article, we discuss this week's FOMC and its implication for short-term interest rates. We also take a look at the US dollar and warning signals…

Nov 1 • 

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October 2025

The Return of the Greenback and Trades in SOFR and Corra Futures

I remain long US equities into year-end. Why I expect a US dollar rally. And trades in SOFR and Corra futures.

Oct 25 • 

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Stress in Money Markets, the End of QT, and Year-End Trade Ideas

The Federal Reserve is moving to end QT as reserves tighten and money market rates spike. A closer look at the equity outlook and other trades heading…

Oct 18 • 

The Village Fund

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From "RepoInsights" to "The Village Fund"

Rebranding.

Oct 11 • 

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From Crypto Crash to Year-End Rally, Gold Bubble, and Oil Selloff

New 100% tariffs on China. Crypto market cap down 21% in a day. The mighty U.S. dollar - and stretched positioning in gold and oil.

Oct 11 • 

The Village Fund

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Year-End Equity Flows, Oil's Setup and STIR Pricing

Buybacks in November & December. The wealth effect and why it means the stock market is the economy. Large money manager short positions in oil. Fewer…

Oct 5 • 

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September 2025

6 Macro Views That Matter Now

Six key views: central bank cuts in 2026, Euro weakness, oil’s turning point, gold risks, and other trade ideas.

Sep 24 • 

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August 2025

Hikes in Europe, Shorts in Small Caps - Hunting for the Next Big Reversal

Stagflation signals from ISM and claims data meet rising credit creation. Euro strength is biting exports, and speculators are crowded into Russell 2000…

Aug 9 • 

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The Case for Going Long the S&P500 Into the FOMC - Plus Key Market Updates

This article dives into the latest economic data, including the GDP print, the NFP report and the latest core PCE data. We also take a look at STIR…

Aug 2 • 

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July 2025

Building a Three-Layer Portfolio

How to stack passive beta, contrarian/discretionary alpha, and systematic strategies for consistent returns. And quick thoughts on STIR and Ethereum.

Jul 27 • 

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STIR Outlook, FX Views, and Thoughts on Portfolio Construction

Euribors are pricing hikes next year. SOFR futures do not price cuts under the new Fed chair. Ethereum is up 45% in two weeks. Beta portfolio…

Jul 20 • 

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Bearish News, Bullish Price Action

Why Trump’s tariff announcements didn’t rattle markets - plus a quick take on earnings, inflation expectations, and US dollar strength.

Jul 13 • 

The Village Fund

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