In this article, we discuss this week's FOMC and its implication for short-term interest rates. We also take a look at the US dollar and warning signals for equities.
Nominal GDP growth is running at ~4.5%, I think that’s roughly fair for the 10-year. It’ll probably be a bit lower than that due to the Fed taking duration out of the market - at least that’s been the case post-GFC. So say 4.3%. And regarding the Fed cut in December - that’s also still the market‘s base case right now.
Do you trade Euribor and Estr on Eurex instead of ICE? Margin req is insanely good in comparison. I only need 90 euro per contract for ESTR.
I haven’t looked into the margin differences on Interactive Brokers in detail to be honest. But thanks for pointing that out, sounds like I should.
What do you think is the fair level of the 10y? I think Dec FOMC still cut,dont know why market will think Powell is hawkish
Nominal GDP growth is running at ~4.5%, I think that’s roughly fair for the 10-year. It’ll probably be a bit lower than that due to the Fed taking duration out of the market - at least that’s been the case post-GFC. So say 4.3%. And regarding the Fed cut in December - that’s also still the market‘s base case right now.