This article dives into the latest economic data, including the GDP print, the NFP report and the latest core PCE data. We also take a look at STIR pricing, FX positioning and more.
If Q3 economic data continues to disappoint but isn’t horrible and you had to short SR3Z2025 at what level would you start shorting? Also thank you for the post!
If markets would price a ~70-80% probability of a third cut in December in the next 2-3 weeks, I think the risk/reward of fading the third cut would be favorable. That doesn’t mean I don’t think three cuts cannot materialize in 2025. It only means the r/r of betting on three cuts would probably not be favorable anymore.
If Q3 economic data continues to disappoint but isn’t horrible and you had to short SR3Z2025 at what level would you start shorting? Also thank you for the post!
If markets would price a ~70-80% probability of a third cut in December in the next 2-3 weeks, I think the risk/reward of fading the third cut would be favorable. That doesn’t mean I don’t think three cuts cannot materialize in 2025. It only means the r/r of betting on three cuts would probably not be favorable anymore.
Awesome thank you for sharing your view!